A Renaissance wave enveloping mid-size cities? – Manageability and safety as key location factors
Inner cities have become the talk of the town. Has there ever been such intense coverage regarding the threat to city centres in Germany as there has been in recent months?
On the one hand, the ever-growing share of internet-based retail as part of total consumption is considered to be the reason for the increasing number of empty shop premises. On the other, the restrictive opening hours enforced to this day by legislators are also to blame for the plight affecting inner-city retail trade.
With the onset of the coronavirus pandemic in March of this year, pedestrian zones were suddenly devoid of all life for weeks on end in what has become known as the “shutdown”. When news of the planned closure of roughly 60 Karstadt and Kaufhof / Galeria department stores made the rounds shortly thereafter, the issue was finally elevated to the status of local political priority.“
The boom in online retail has rendered many city centres deserted. Is the virus now the final nail in the coffin?” asked SPIEGEL with alarm. Even in large cities, which up to now have had little to complain about in terms of reduced sales thanks to their above-average centrality, local politicians are suddenly beginning to grasp what their colleagues in mid-size city centres (and especially in smaller towns) have long known: The “pedestrian zone system is gravely ill”.
In actuality, the hitherto unthinkable closures of branches operated by the Karstadt-Kaufhof Group – even in the prime locations like Hanover (Georgstraße) or Düsseldorf (Am Wehrhahn) – are now becoming a bitter reality.
While it should soon be possible to close the vacancy gap emerging in the two state capitals once the unavoidable state of shock has subsided, it will potentially become much more problematic in those cities where precisely these department stores were previously considered a magnet for those in search of retail therapy.
Following a closure and without a new tenant being found soon, the entire balance underpinning the pedestrian zone, which has grown over a period of many years, could be shaken to its core, thereby leading to the complete desolation of what was formerly a pulsating inner city.
The term “prime location”, which had been elevated to the status of “seal of approval”, is, therefore, no longer a guarantee for many retail space owners that their own property will not be affected by this creeping disease afflicting inner-city commercial life.
All because of Corona?
There is much to suggest that even without the spread of COVID-19, a radical change of course was (or is) well overdue, in order to safeguard the successful ongoing development of city life.
The recovery of inner-city vibrancy is only possible if all those stakeholders involved on the ground have the courage to take stock of the situation at hand with merciless honesty, and do not ignore the emerging trends in the short to medium term, especially on the demand side.
Which target groups are still attracted to the city centres when most errands can now be managed online? The pandemic-induced heightening of consumer sentiment towards cocooning and the desire for comfortable furnishing within one’s own four walls have – in recent months – brought about strong growth for garden and DIY stores, furniture shops and boutiques specialising in decoration and hobby supplies.
The first harbingers of a change in mobility boosted the bicycle trade. In addition, pharmacies have also recorded robust sales growth. By contrast, there was a significant drop in sales figures, especially for clothing and footwear, the causes of which are two-fold: For many people, shopping as a leisure experience is no longer necessary, as protective masks and “social distancing” are not exactly stimulating.
Furthermore, many people have discovered over recent weeks at home just how little they need (or indeed at all) when everyday office life with colleagues and superiors is put on hold and all celebrations, cultural, musical and sporting events are likewise cancelled. Who else can you show off your new outfit to these days, anyway?
The boundaries between home and workplace have become blurred by the trend towards the home office setup, leading to a fundamental shift in fashion trends – away from the business look and towards more casual wear: Polo shirts instead of business shirts, and trainers in place of classic, leather lace-up shoes.
Anyone who consciously pays attention to what’s currently adorning people’s feet will be amazed at the high proportion of trainers on display. Is it 70, 80 or perhaps even more than 90%?
So it should come as no surprise if retail occupancy rates in city centres were to change accordingly. More and more traditional textile stores and shoe retailers are departing from the city centre and are being replaced by “streetwear” providers such as Foot-Locker, Snipes or JD-Sports.
Changes of the public life in inner cities
It is somewhat more difficult to answer the question as to which customers exactly will be expected to deliver sufficient retail sales in city centres during the week from Monday to Thursday, if there is neither a university brimming with student life nor tourist attractions that provide buses full of visitors as a guaranteed source of purchasing power.
For metropolises with commuter potential from the surrounding area, this question is perhaps less relevant. Rather, the threat there stems from the fact that the enticing effect of large cities not only attracts people with purchasing power, as experience in recent months has shown.
It appears that people with a propensity for violence are also being increasingly lured into what has recently been pigeon-holed as the “party and event scene”. The fallout from these parties and events was still on display for all to see several days later – for example, in Stuttgart and Frankfurt after riots in the respective pedestrian zones.
In other large cities such as Berlin, Cologne, Nuremberg or Essen, social hotspots at the heart of the city centre are apparently no longer a rarity either, if the ensuing media coverage is to be believed, thereby leading to security operatives patrolling the pedestrian zones in groups of four – even during the day.
Is the division of society – a phenomenon feared by so many – already becoming visible in our major city centres? Should we agree with a commentator from the F.A.Z. newspaper publication when he observes “a mixture of irregularity and crime” and “lost souls from all over the world” in many a large German city, while fearing “a sense of futility” among the police?
If this development continues at its current pace, mid-size cities could well experience a renaissance in the medium term, which would see city centres filling up, and not just at the weekend.
Both the shift in the world of work towards an increasing dependency on the “home office” setup and the (at least perceived) deterioration of security in the public sphere in our metropolises will lead to those municipalities – disparagingly referred to real estate parlance as “C-” or even only “D-category” locations (cf. “The ABC of cities…”) becoming much more attractive.
The renaissance of mid-size-cities
Spatial proximity, a manageable basic order and family security in an increasingly confusing world will become ever more important when it comes to the choice of location.
If it is possible to work from anywhere in future (assuming a stable, fast Internet connection), the affordable terraced house with garden and good local transport connections will become an alternative to the big city for many.
However, a pedestrian zone in a mid-size city will then require the combined support of all stakeholders: an infrastructure that incentivises people to visit more often – with day-care facilities, medical centres, adult education establishments, city libraries, central contact points for when visiting the authorities, weekly markets, city festivals and much more. These are all prerequisites for vibrant urban life spanning generations.
In times like these, it should also form an integral part of basic urban planning to only allow additional retail space outside a clearly defined focal area in the most extreme of exceptional cases. Simplified approval procedures, extended rules for the protection of existing buildings and, above all, no additional red tape would be equally prudent recuperative considerations for our fragile pedestrian zones.
The topic of “Mobility & Accessibility” should be weighed up from all perspectives. Climate protection efforts are also playing an increasingly important role. However, as long as the generation aged 50 and over (and its notable purchasing power) generally remains dependent on using their own cars (partly for health reasons), private transport should not be overused, as was recently announced in a district town in southern Baden.
When the municipal financial budget was adopted, the Community Enforcement Services set an additional revenue target of EUR 105,000 for the following year with the concrete “recommendation for action” to deal with stationary traffic: “An additional 600 parking tickets per month with an average value of EUR 15”. Is this incredible development just an isolated incident, or is it typical for Germany's city halls and those who run them? Perhaps local merchant communities should check with their respective city councils.
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